Even though the word “outbreak” is now most associated with COVID-19, many parts of the world are still affected by outbreaks of other diseases. Particularly in Latin America, millions of people get infected with yellow fever, zika and dengue.

An international team of researchers will embark on a groundbreaking study to develop models that predict epidemics of these diseases and how to avert them in time. The main objective of the study is to create a systemic model of prediction of outbreaks, which has not been done before despite the causes and cycles of these diseases being well-known.

“Deforestation, seasonal variations in rainfall and non-human primate populations are all factors that influence outbreaks, but we need to know the tipping-point for each one, and to find that out we’ll develop predictive models based on research and monitoring conducted in arbovirus hotspots in São Paulo, Amazonas and the Pantanal in Brazil, and in Panama,” said Maurício Lacerda Nogueira, a professor at the São José do Rio Preto Medical School (FAMERP) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

The study will help monitor the mosquito population in the urban area of São José do Rio Preto and the monkey and mosquito populations in the transition zone between rural and urban Manaus, the Amazonas state capital.

To find out more about the study, read Agencia FAPESP’s publication here.


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